Are the Jews in Israel Today Still the People of Promise?
Thanks to Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens, we’ve been getting some version of this question lately:
"Do you think the people living in Israel today are still the same 'chosen people' we read about in the Bible?"
It’s a fair question, and we understand why it’s being asked. And like all things with the Jewish people, it’s one that gets more complicated the more you start to dig.
Some people assume the answer is, “Yes, of course, God’s promises never change.”
Others say, “No, those promises were for Old Testament times. The church is the new Israel now.”
And some… honestly, don’t think about it at all.
But the reason this question matters is bigger than politics or headlines. It’s about the character of God. If He could cancel His promises to Israel, how can we trust Him to keep His promises to us?
So, let’s pretend we’re sitting in our favorite Jewish deli, open the Bible together, and trace the story.
The First Promise
Picture a man named Abram, living in a pagan culture, minding his own business. Then God interrupts his life with a promise:
"Go from your country and your kindred and your father’s house to the land that I will show you. And I will make of you a great nation, and I will bless you and make your name great, so that you will be a blessing. I will bless those who bless you, and him who dishonors you I will curse, and in you all the families of the earth shall be blessed."
(Genesis 12:1–3)
This is where the “chosen people” idea begins. God promises Abram three things:
A land
A people (descendants)
A mission (blessing to the whole world)
A few chapters later, in Genesis 15, God does something remarkable. He formalizes the promise in an ancient covenant ceremony. Animals are cut in two, but instead of both parties walking between the pieces, Abram is put into a deep sleep, and God alone passes through.
In other words, this promise isn’t a 50/50 deal. It’s 100% on God to keep it.
And in Genesis 17, God calls it an “everlasting covenant” with Abram’s descendants. Everlasting means…everlasting.
Two Covenants, Two Purposes
The Bible actually speaks of several covenants God made: with Noah, Abraham, Israel at Sinai, David, and through the New Covenant in Jesus. Each has its own place in the storyline of Scripture. But for the sake of this conversation about whether the Jewish people in Israel today are still the people of promise, we’ll focus on just two that are central to the question: the Abrahamic Covenant and the Mosaic Covenant.
The Abrahamic Covenant (Genesis 12, 15, 17) is unconditional. It’s about whose family they are. God chose Abraham, promised to make him into a great nation, to give his descendants the land of Canaan, and to bless all the families of the earth through him. This covenant rests entirely on God’s faithfulness, not human performance, and God called it everlasting.
The Mosaic Covenant (Exodus 19–24), given centuries later at Mount Sinai, is conditional. It’s about how life works inside that family. It includes the Torah, God’s law, which laid out blessings for obedience and consequences for disobedience.
Breaking the Mosaic Covenant could and did bring discipline: national crises, enemy invasions, and even exile from the land. But it could not erase the Abrahamic Covenant. The people might break God’s law, but God would not break His promise. He makes that clear in Leviticus 26:44–45:
"Yet for all that, when they are in the land of their enemies, I will not spurn them… to break my covenant with them… But I will for their sake remember the covenant with their forefathers."
Even in rebellion, God says: I will not break My covenant.
Fast Forward to Paul’s Day
Jump ahead about 2,000 years. Paul, a Jewish follower of Jesus, is writing to believers in Rome. But the church in Rome doesn’t look the same as when it started.
When the gospel first reached Rome, the believers there were mostly Jewish, following Jesus while still living Jewish lives. But around A.D. 49, Emperor Claudius issued an edict expelling all Jews from the city. That meant Jewish believers were suddenly gone too.
For about five years, the churches in Rome were almost entirely Gentile. The leaders, the rhythms, even the flavor of the fellowship became more and more Gentile in culture.
Then, when Claudius died, the Jewish believers began trickling back home, only to find the neighborhood had changed. The house churches they rejoined no longer felt distinctly Jewish. Leadership was Gentile. Customs were different. Tensions naturally grew.
It’s in that setting, a church where Gentiles were now the majority and starting to wonder if God was finished with the Jewish people, that Paul writes Romans 9–11. He’s addressing an unspoken assumption: If most Jewish people don’t believe in Jesus anymore, maybe they’ve been replaced.
Paul’s answer is crystal clear:
"Has God rejected His people? By no means!"
- Romans 11:1
He goes on:
"As regards the gospel, they are enemies for your sake, but as regards election, they are beloved for the sake of their forefathers. For the gifts and the calling of God are irrevocable."
- Romans 11:28–29
Even in unbelief, Israel is still beloved because of God’s promise to Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob. God’s call doesn’t get revoked.
The Olive Tree Picture
Paul uses a powerful image in Romans 11:17–24: an olive tree. The tree represents God’s covenant promises to Israel. The Jewish people are the natural branches; Gentile believers are like wild branches grafted in. God didn’t plant a new tree for the Gentiles, nor did He cut down the old one.
Instead, He brought the nations into Israel’s own tree, sharing in the same nourishing root. And just as some natural branches were broken off because of unbelief, Paul says they can just as easily be grafted back in. This isn’t a picture of replacement; it’s a picture of inclusion, where both Jew and Gentile share in the life of the same tree God planted through Abraham.
So, Are They Still the People of Promise?
Emphatically, yes! The Jewish people, including those living in Israel today, are still part of that covenant family God chose through Abraham. But I understand why the question even comes up.
Some people assume that because most Jews today don’t believe in Jesus (about 98%), they must have forfeited their status as God’s chosen people. Others have heard conspiracy theories, that the modern State of Israel is just a political project, even a plot funded by wealthy families like the Rothschilds. Still others look at the return of Jewish people from all over the world and say, “How can these scattered, mixed-heritage people possibly be the same as the Israelites in the Bible? Too much time has passed. The diaspora has blurred it all.”
From there, it’s an easy leap for some to say, “Well, if the question of Jewish identity is that muddled, maybe the only real answer is that all the promises God made to the Jewish people now belong to a ‘new Israel’ - the church.”
But before you accept that conclusion, you have to ask: If the Jews living in Israel today are not the ‘real’ Jews…then who is?
History itself seems to have no confusion on this point. From the early church’s persecution to the Crusades, from the pogroms of Europe to the Holocaust, and even to the attacks of October 7, the Jewish people have carried a unique mark since the days of Abraham. If they are not the covenant people, why has the enemy - whether spiritual or human - been so consistent in identifying them as such? The Jewish people have been singled out again and again as those Jews, the descendants of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob.
God’s covenant was never based on flawless genealogy or perfect faith. It was based on His own promise. Throughout history, Israel has been exiled, scattered, and regathered - just as the prophets said would happen (Isaiah 43:5–6; Ezekiel 36:24). That scattering didn’t dissolve the covenant, it fulfilled the very warnings God gave through Moses. And the regathering we see today isn’t a random political accident - it’s part of the long, slow return that God Himself said He would accomplish.
As for unbelief, Paul is clear: “As regards the gospel, they are enemies for your sake, but as regards election, they are beloved for the sake of their forefathers” (Romans 11:28).
The gifts and calling of God are irrevocable. Unbelief may break fellowship, but it cannot break the covenant.
So when you see Jewish people in the land of Israel today - whether they came from Ethiopia, Russia, America, or Yemen - you are looking at living evidence that God keeps His word. The covenant conversation is not about who holds the most pure DNA or whether the state of Israel’s politics are perfect. It’s about the faithfulness of the God who made an everlasting promise and has not gone back on it.
Why It Matters
If we lose sight of God’s covenant with Israel, we risk more than a theological misstep - we risk misunderstanding the very heart of God. His relationship with Israel is a living testimony to His relentless faithfulness. For thousands of years, through rebellion, exile, scattering, and regathering, He has kept His word. Not because Israel has been flawless, but because His love is.
And this is where it touches us: the same God who swore an everlasting covenant to Abraham’s descendants is the God who promises to never leave or forsake you. His faithfulness to them is the guarantee of His faithfulness to you.
Paul, after wrestling through these very questions about Israel’s future, doesn’t just close his letter with a tidy summary, he bursts into praise:
"Oh, the depth of the riches and wisdom and knowledge of God!
How unsearchable are his judgments and how inscrutable his ways!
For who has known the mind of the Lord, or who has been his counselor?
Or who has given a gift to him that he might be repaid?
For from him and through him and to him are all things.
To him be glory forever. Amen."
- Romans 11:33–36
Think the Church Replaced Israel? Think Again.
There’s a growing narrative that says God’s promises to Israel are over, and the Church has taken her place. But is that what the Bible really says?
Download our free guide: “Top 10 Verses Replacement Theology Gets Wrong” and learn how Scripture tells a different story.
That’s where this conversation should leave us, not just informed, but in awe.
If you’ve only ever heard the “headline theology” version of this story, I want to invite you to go deeper.
We’ve put together a free resource called The Israel Delusion: 10 Verses Replacement Theology Gets Wrong that will help you see how Scripture, from Genesis to Revelation, tells one unbroken story of God’s covenant faithfulness.
You can get it here: thejewishroad.com/delusion
About The Jewish Road
At the heart of The Jewish Road lies a passion ignited by a father-son duo, Ron and Matt Davis. Our journey began with a simple yet profound desire: to bridge the gap in understanding that has kept two faith communities apart for too long. We're here to help Christians connect with the roots of their faith and for Jews to explore the life and teachings of Jesus with an open heart.
Imagine a world where every believer, be they Jewish or Christian, not only knows their faith but truly understands its origins and interconnectedness. We strive to restore the Jewish essence of the Gospel, offering insights that deepen knowledge, bolster faith, and propel the growth of the Kingdom. The narrative of faith, we believe, is a two-act play where both acts are essential for a comprehensive grasp of the story. By uniting these acts, we're presenting a more holistic and enriching perspective.
Life is too short to wander without knowing the full essence of your beliefs. Whether you're attending a synagogue or a church, there's so much more to discover. The Jewish Road is here to guide, enlighten, and, most importantly, bring both halves of the story together. Join us on this journey; together
